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EY: Нагласите за солидни глобални инвестиции в Европа

Независимо от съществуващата геополитическа несигурност и волатилността на финансовите пазари, инвестиционните планове за Европа през следващите три години са силни

06 февруари 2017, 705 прочитания

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► Инвеститорите посочват огромната волатилност на валутите, стоките и капиталовите пазари като най-големите рискове за преките чуждестранни инвестиции в Европа

► Над 70% от инвеститорите вече усещат известно влияние след гласуването за излизане на Великобритания от ЕС 
► 96% от компаниите не се чувстват подготвени да посрещнат несигурността в бъдеще

EY

Независимо от съществуващата геополитическа несигурност и волатилността на финансовите пазари, инвестиционните планове за Европа през следващите три години са  силни, като 56% от световните инвеститори планират разрастване на присъствието си на континента. Това показва Проучването на EY за атрактивността на Европа – План Б за Брекзит за 2017 г. 
За сравнение, проучването на EY, проведено през миналия месец май показа, че едва 36% от инвеститорите в Европа споделят положителни инвестиционни прогнози за Стария континент.  

 
Инвеститорите посочват нестабилността на континента като свое първостепенно опасение по отношение на бъдещите инвестиционни планове. Независимо от това, талантите в Европа, капацитетът за иновации и големият, интегриран пазар и система за производство продължават да бъдат високо ценени от глобалните инвеститори. 
Най-много от 254-те анкетирани глобални инвеститори посочват огромната волатилност на валутите, стоките и капиталовите пазари като най-голям риск за инвестиционните решения в Европа (37%), докато икономическата и политическата нестабилност в Европейския съюз (ЕС), с изключение на излизането на Великобритания от ЕС (32%), и ефектът от Брекзит (28%) са посочени съответно като вторият и третият най-голям риск. 
Анди Болдуин, управляващ съдружник на EY за региона на Европа, Близкия Изток, Индия и Африка, заявява: 
“Окуражаващо е, че инвеститорите, които следим, продължават да имат голям интерес за инвестиции в Европа, независимо от нестабилността и смесената геополитическа среда. Търпението на инвеститорите, обаче, не е безкрайно. Историческата атрактивност на Европа за инвеститорите се основаваше на сигурността и предвидимостта. Европа е застрашена от развитие на " рисков геополитически профил" на нововъзникващ пазар без да осигурява съпътстващата го възвръщаемост. В обозримо бъдеще чисто икономическите фактори ще се съревновават с политическите съображения при повлияването на окончателните инвестиционни решения”

 
Очертанията на европейската карта на преките чуждестранни инвестиции започват да се променят 
Повишените географски и политически рискове в Европа и Обединеното кралство подтикват 1 от всеки 10 компании с присъствие в Европа да направи преглед на географския си отпечатък. Проучването, обаче, установява, че референдумът за членството в ЕС, който беше проведен в Обединеното кралство, поражда значително по-големи опасения за чуждестранните компании, установени там (33%), в сравнение с тези, които не са (15%). Компаниите, които не са установени в Обединеното кралство, посочват като значително по-сериозни опасения геополитическата и по-широкообхватната нестабилност в ЕС (31%), наред със забавянето на търговските потоци (30%). 
14% от чуждестранните инвеститори с присъствие в Обединеното кралство планират да променят или да преместят част от европейските си операции през следващите три години, ако Великобритания напусне Единния европейски пазар. Като цяло 11% планират да модифицират присъствието си в Обединеното кралство в Европа след Брекзит. Като предпочитана дестинация за инвеститорите, които напускат Обединеното кралство (54%), се посочва Германия, следвана от Холандия (33%) и Франция (8%).
Хане Джеска Бакс, управляващ съдружник на EY за пазари и клиенти в региона на Европа, Близкия изток, Индия и Африка, посочва:
“Бързината е основен фактор за успеха на бизнеса в една волатилна среда. Инвестиционните апетити в Европа се увеличават, но бизнес структурите ще имат нужда от гъвкавост, за да посрещнат бъдещето и непредвидените промени. Например, смекчаването на ефекта от възможните увеличения на разходите за внос ще бъде от изключителна важност. Но компаниите не трябва просто да адресират рисковете. Те трябва също така да търсят възможности за реализиране на нов бизнес и повишаване на оперативната ефективност в стремежа си за растеж и разрастване на бизнеса си”. 

 
Ефектът на Брекзит върху финансовите услуги, технологиите и средните предприятия 
Компаниите за финансови услуги са най-малко оптимистични по отношение на перспективите си за растеж в Европа през следващите 3 години: едва 12% очакват силен ръст, докато 6% очакват "леко намаление" в съществуващото си присъствие в региона. Също така за компаниите за финансови услуги е почти два пъти по-вероятно в сравнение с производствените предприятия да идентифицират нестабилността в ЕС (51%) и Брекзит (41%) като трите най-големи рискове за растежа, докато волатилността се разглежда като значително по-незначителен риск.
Технологичният сектор е водещ за растежа в Европа като 72% от анкетираните планират инвестиции в Европа през следващите три години, а от тях 33% очакват значително разрастване на присъствието си – като идентифицират Европа като генератор на нововъзникващи технологии, като например изкуствен итлелект (IA), Интернет на нещата (the Internet of Things (IoT)) и роботика. Средните предприятия също са движеща сила на растежа като повече от две трети очакват ръст в присъствието си в Европа, а 26% планират значително разширение.

 
Брекзит променя дневния ред в заседателните зали на управителните съвети
Повече от 70% от чуждестранните инвеститори посочват, че вече са усетили известен ефект след британския референдум за членството на страната в ЕС. Тези инвеститори са усетили въздействието в поне една област от стопанските си дейности в Европа като са посочили по-конкретно оперативните маржове, себестойността на доставките и реализираната продукция. Компаниите със силно присъствие в Обединеното кралство са усетили най-сериозен удар, като 31% съобщават за увеличение на разходите за доставки и същият процент идентифицира натиск върху оперативните маржове. 
Оценката и управлението на непосредствения ефект от Брекзит върху разходите (в голяма степен в резултат на вноса) и върху веригата за доставки са фундаменталните опасения на анкетираните. Съответно 32% и 27% посочват тези въпроси като спешни проблеми в дневния си ред. Независимо от опасенията, свързани с геополитическата среда, едва 4% от анкетираните споделят, че са добре подготвени за несигурността, възникваща в резултат на новите рискове и променящата се регулаторна среда. 
Болдуин заключва: 
“Финансовият ефект от Брекзит не се ограничава само до Обединеното кралство. Проучването показва, че 70% от европейските компании, които включихме в проучването, са усетили ефекта по един или друг начин. Европейските компании и инвеститори имат нужда от сигурност и искат яснота по отношение на бъдещите търговски взаимоотношения между Обединеното кралство и ЕС27. Междувременно, вероятно ще сме свидетели на подем при реконфигурирането от страна на компаниите на веригите за доставки и договореностите за дистрибуция, така че да се смекчи волатилността на валутите и натиска върху разходите. Гъвкавостта и бързината ще бъдат ключови в това отношение”. 
Докладът на EY: “European attractiveness survey January 2017: Plan B …
for Brexit” e достъпен тук - > European_Attractiveness_Brexit 

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